2025-06-23 | 09:13:01

Get ready for an interesting week (aren’t they all now?). We have a potentially escalating conflict in the Middle East which could affect oil prices. Over the last 50 years, whenever oil prices spike the economy slows down, however the inflation rate may take a few months to cool. The immediate effect is higher prices at the pump, but the longer-term result of slower growth (or recession) is always a few months behind. Wars tend to push investors to safer markets than the stock market, and this means that bonds may get a boost. When bond prices go up, the bond yields go down which in turn lowers fixed interest rates. In short, fixed interest rates should be coming down somewhat.

Tomorrow, Canada announces its headline inflation figure, and we would like to see that below 2%. The market consensus is 1.7%, a number which should contribute to lower interest rates. I will be keeping an eye on the ‘core’ inflation number which excludes volatile items such as fuel, food and tax changes. Ideally we would like to see core inflation come in below 2.5%. A higher reading will likely mean that Bank of Canada rate cuts, which affect variable rate mortgages, will have to wait.

Finally, I looked at the calendar and did some mental math, and Team Duggan Mortgage is now over 25 years old. I would like to take this opportunity to thank all of my clients for their trust and loyalty. I have been arranging mortgages lately for children of my past clients and I take that as the ultimate compliment. Team Duggan Mortgage has grown in the last few years from a team of one to the current team of six. So if you know of anyone looking for expert advice, please pass on my name and contact information. We are happy to help, we like keeping everyone employed and most importantly, we love saving our clients money.

Call me if you have any questions @ 905-299-4665

Many thanks,...Patrick